Victorious VGT | Backtest from Jan 09 2008
Today’s Change (Aug 23, 2026)
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About
A daily, rule‑driven tech‑timing strategy: buy VGT on market washouts, hedge with short funds when markets are overheated, and sit in T‑Bills in weak downtrends. Uses RSI extremes and a 100‑day trend filter; backtested since 2008.
Goal: own VGT (Vanguard Tech) when odds look good; hedge or go to cash otherwise. It watches a 0–100 “heat” gauge (RSI: high=hot/overbought, low=cold/oversold) and trends.
- If many indexes/sectors look very hot, it shifts into short funds (SH=short S&P, PSQ=short Nasdaq, EUM=short EM), sized by recent calmness.
- If things look washed‑out, it buys VGT.
- If in‑between, it uses SPY’s 100‑day trend and a bond‑vs‑inverse check to choose VGT, PSQ, or T‑Bills (SHV). Rebalances daily.
Out-of-sample edge: ~22.9% annualized return vs ~17.9% for the S&P, beta ~0.74 (lower market exposure), Calmar ~1.15, and daily tech-timing with hedges. Higher upside with controlled risk compared to the S&P.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 27, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, tech-focused, mean reversion, trend following, hedged, inverse etfs, daily rebalanced
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 17 assets in total
Ticker
Type
AGG
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF
Stocks
EUM
ProShares Trust Short MSCI Emerging Markets
Stocks
IOO
iShares Global 100 ETF
Stocks
IVV
iShares Core S&P 500 ETF
Stocks
MGC
Vanguard Morningstar Mega Cap ETF
Stocks
PSQ
ProShares Short QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SH
ProShares Short S&P500
Stocks
SHV
iShares Trust iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SOXX
iShares Semiconductor ETF
Stocks