V3.0.1 | ☢️ Beta Baller + TCCC 💊 | Deez, BrianE, HinnomTX, DereckN, Garen, DJKeyhole 🧙♂️ | AR: 8923.1%, DD 29.2% - BT date 1DEC19
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A daily-rebalanced, rules-based, regime-switching strategy that uses many baskets (risk-on, risk-off, defense) to pick 1 asset per scenario (often via momentum/RSI filters) and evenly weight the chosen assets. It shifts into volatility hedges and bonds when signals indicate risk, and leans into levered equities when momentum is strong.
- It operates like a decision tree with many branches. Each day it checks a series of regime signals (e.g., is the market overbought or oversold? is the trend up or down? is volatility elevated?).
- It organizes assets into baskets corresponding to different market regimes (examples: risk-on growth baskets using leveraged tech/semis; bear/defense baskets using inverse or bear ETFs and bonds; volatility hedges using UVXY/VIX-related products).
- Within a basket, assets are filtered by momentum and trend indicators (relative strength, moving-average returns, price vs. SPY, RSI thresholds, etc.).
- From the eligible pool, it selects a small number (often 1) of assets using “top” or “bottom” ranking rules and a fixed scoring window (e.g., 5–7 days of momentum, 7–10 day RSI, etc.).
- The chosen assets are then weighted, typically with equal cash allocation (wt-cash-equal) across the assets in that basket, so the cash exposure is spread evenly among the winners.
- A daily rebalance recomputes everything and shifts allocations to reflect current regime signals. There are explicit risk-off layers: if the system detects overbought, it may move into volatility hedges (UVXY, VIXY) or bear ETFs; if it detects oversold or defensive conditions, it may tilt toward bonds or gold proxies (SHY, AGG, IEF, GLD).
- The strategy uses a lot of ETF proxies (e.g., SPY, TQQQ, TECL, SOXL, SPXL, UPRO, QLD, SQQQ, SOXS, TECS, TMF, UCO, EWZ, EEM, EPI, BIL, SHY, IEF, AGG, GLD, UUP, DBC, TMF, UVXY) to form diversified regime-specific baskets. It also contrasts price momentum against long-term averages to decide whether a regime is “on” or “off.”
- The aim is to capture upside in bull markets with leveraged equity exposure while preserving capital in bear markets by shifting into hedges and safer assets, all while maintaining a disciplined, rules-based approach rather than discretionary timing.
Out-of-sample, this regime-switching strategy targets ~58.7% annualized return vs SPY ~21.5%, with Sharpe ~0.95 and Calmar ~1.20. It uses leverage in favorable regimes and hedges in risk-off, rebalanced daily for disciplined risk control.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Dec 8, 2022
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Multi-asset, regime-switching, momentum-driven, leveraged etfs, risk-on/risk-off, volatility hedges
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 38 assets in total
Ticker
Type
AGG
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF
Stocks
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
CURE
Direxion Daily Healthcare Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
EEM
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF
Stocks
EFA
iShares MSCI EAFE ETF
Stocks
EPI
WisdomTree India Earnings Fund ETF
Stocks
ERX
Direxion Daily Energy Bull 2X ETF
Stocks
EUO
ProShares UltraShort Euro
Stocks
EWZ
iShares MSCI Brazil ETF
Stocks