V3 | Fund Surfing | Michael B | Milder
Today’s Change (Oct 22, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A market-timing strategy that chases strong trends in stock funds during calmer periods, but switches toward Treasury-bond trades and diversifying assets when market stress rises.
This strategy first asks: “Is the market getting too wild?” It checks UVXY, a fund tied to market fear. If fear is not too high, it splits money between:
• funds that have recently cooled off but may bounce, and
• funds that have been the strongest lately.
If fear is high, it shifts to a more defensive play: either long- or short-betting on long-term Treasury bonds, or mixing in safer/diversifying assets like commodities, the U.S. dollar, staples stocks, and short-term Treasuries.
Out-of-sample upside: ~38.2% annualized vs S&P ~20.1%. Regime-switching blends trend exposure with defensive bets for growth and diversification. Expect higher drawdowns (~69%), but potential for meaningful risk-adjusted gains (Calmar ~0.55).
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.32 | 1.96 | 0.47 | 0.69 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 722.87% | 15.15% | -0.05% | 3.57% | 0.93 | |
| 193,489.1% | 65.98% | -23.69% | -24.77% | 1.3 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$19,358,909.90Regulatory Fees
$57,507.81
Total Slippage
$496,115.67
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Dec 14, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 20%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, momentum, mean reversion, volatility regime, leveraged etfs, multi-asset, bonds
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 14 assets in total
Ticker
Type
DBA
Invesco DB Agriculture Fund
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
TMV
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks