V3 Beat the Market | Michael B Mod Replace QLD with TQQQ
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A daily, signal-driven strategy that mostly follows QQQ momentum, uses a levered Nasdaq play (TQQQ) during oversold conditions, and falls back to cash or SHY to limit drawdown; replaces QLD with TQQQ for higher leverage in selected setups.
Step 1: Start with cash as the default position (100%). Step 2: Check if QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF) shows stronger short-term momentum than the broad market proxy (SPY) using a short-term vs long-term moving average test. If QQQ looks stronger, stay in or move into QQQ. Step 3: If QQQ does not show enough momentum versus SPY, scan for an oversold setup on a levered Nasdaq play: if QQQ’s momentum/RSI tests indicate oversold conditions, switch to a levered Nasdaq vehicle (TQQQ) to attempt a sharper rebound. Step 4: If the oversold levered condition isn’t met, re-check another price comparison (e.g., QQQ price relative to SPY) and, if still unfavorable, move to SHY (short-term Treasuries) to preserve capital. Step 5: After any switch, the portfolio is rebalanced daily so positions reflect the latest signals. Step 6: The design replaces a prior QLD-based approach with TQQQ to introduce higher leverage in oversold scenarios, aiming for higher upside while using cash/SHY as a risk-control layer. Overall, the logic is: favor QQQ when it’s leading, use TQQQ on strong oversold opportunities, and default to cash/SHY when signals are unclear or negative. Note: this is a historical backtest framework and real-world results can differ, particularly given the effects of compounding on leveraged ETFs and market regime changes.
Momentum-driven Nasdaq strategy: ride QQQ leadership, switch to 3x TQQQ on oversold signals, with cash/SHY risk guards. Out-of-sample: ~37% annualized return vs S&P ~23%, plus solid risk-adjusted metrics and disciplined downside controls.
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OOS Start Date
Dec 18, 2022
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Quantitative, momentum, tactical allocation, leveraged etf usage, risk management