V2a | Fund Surfing | Michael B | Commodities
Today’s Change (Jan 19, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A rule-based “fund surfing” strategy: in calm markets it buys the most beaten‑down ETF to catch a rebound; when fear spikes it flips to 3x long or 3x short Treasuries, or briefly surfs a basket that includes commodities. High risk; concentrated positions.
It first checks market “fear” using UVXY’s 20‑day RSI (RSI = a 0–100 heat meter). If fear isn’t overheated (<70), it buys 1 fund that looks most beaten‑down over 20 days from SPY/UPRO/TECL/SOXL/SHY. If fear is high, it usually rides long‑term Treasuries via TMF (3x long) or TMV (3x short), picking the side that held up better over 5 days. If both bond sides look calm, it picks 2 beaten‑down funds over 5 days from SPY/UPRO/TECL/SHY plus commodities DBC/DBA.
Out-of-sample, this fund-surfing strategy targets higher upside: ~46% annualized vs the S&P’s ~23%, by switching between beaten-down equities and leveraged bonds/commodities. Expect larger drawdowns but potentially stronger long-run gains.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.55 | 2.18 | 0.38 | 0.62 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 630.52% | 15.06% | 2.19% | 5.01% | 0.92 | |
| 2,454,298.3% | 103.99% | 5.34% | 19.33% | 1.5 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$245,439,829.69Regulatory Fees
$734,761.07
Total Slippage
$5,260,247.12
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Dec 20, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, regime switching, mean reversion, leveraged etfs, treasuries, commodities, tech equities
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 10 assets in total
Ticker
Type
DBA
Invesco DB Agriculture Fund
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares
Stocks
SPY
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x Shares
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (based on the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index; symbol AXTWEN)
Stocks
TMV
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (based on the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index; symbol AXTWEN)
Stocks
UPRO
ProShares UltraPro S&P 500
Stocks
UVXY
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks