V2a | Fund Surfing | Michael B | Commodities
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A tactical buy‑the‑dip approach that switches with market fear. In calm times it buys the most beaten‑down fund (tech/semis/S&P/short‑term Treasuries). When fear is high, it either surfs two beaten‑down funds (adds commodities) or rides 3x long/short Treasuries.
Uses a fear gauge (UVXY). RSI = a recent “hot/cold” score (0–100).
• If fear isn’t extreme (UVXY 20‑day RSI < 70): buy the single fund with the lowest RSI among tech/semis/S&P 500/short‑term Treasuries.
• If fear is high: either keep surfing the two lowest‑RSI funds (now adding broad/agri commodities) when Treasuries look stable, or ride TMF/TMV (3x long/short Treasuries), picking the side with the milder 5‑day drawdown.
Out-of-sample annualized return ~48% vs SPY ~23%; Calmar ~0.59. Adaptive, fear-driven regime switches catch dips and diversify with commodities and Treasuries; potentially higher upside than the S&P with managed risk.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.54 | 2.2 | 0.38 | 0.62 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 608.48% | 14.63% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.9 | |
| 2,084,526.6% | 100.1% | -4.77% | -4.16% | 1.47 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$208,462,660.17Regulatory Fees
$755,428.92
Total Slippage
$5,408,738.23
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Dec 20, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical, buy-the-dip, volatility regime, mean reversion, leveraged etfs, commodities, treasuries, short-term
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 10 assets in total
Ticker
Type
DBA
Invesco DB Agriculture Fund
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
TMV
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X ETF
Stocks
UPRO
ProShares UltraPro S&P 500
Stocks
UVXY
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks