V2a | Fund Surfing | Michael B | Commodities
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A momentum-driven, two-path strategy that (1) rides the strongest, least-overbought fund from a tech/market universe when volatility is tame, and (2) switches to leveraged treasury bets during volatile periods, with a commodity sub-path that selects two assets by short RSI. It uses RSI, max drawdown, and UVXY as volatility/risk signals to choose between equity/commodity exposure and leverage-on-bonds.
- The plan looks for “waves” in a set of funds and commodities rather than holding a static mix.
- It uses RSI, a momentum gauge, to identify assets that aren’t overly extended (not too hot) and to pick the best candidate from a candidate group.
- If market behavior is not too volatile, it picks a single best fund (the one with the lowest recent momentum score, i.e., lowest RSI) and puts all your cash into that one asset.
- If volatility looks high (the signal from UVXY’s momentum is unfavorable), it switches to a treasury-bond strategy using 3x leveraged long/short treasury ETFs (TMF/TMV) to ride larger bond moves during waves.
- There is also a separate branch aimed at commodities, where the bottom-2 assets by short-window RSI (5 days) among a commodity/commodity-adjacent pool are selected and weighted evenly.
- Assets in the pools are commonly SPY (broad market), UPRO/TECL (risk-on tech/large-cap), SOXL (semiconductors), SHY (short Treasuries), DBC/DBA (commodities), and in the leverage space TMF/TMV (long/short on long-duration Treasuries).
- The selection uses a mix of sorting by RSI, max drawdown filters, and simple “bottom” or “top” picks to determine which assets receive weights (often full weight 100 across the chosen asset(s)).
- The overall aim is to surf favorable momentum in calmer periods and protect/attempt to profit from volatility by shifting to bond leverage during turbulent times.
Note: The exact thresholds (e.g., 20-day RSI, 5-day RSI, RSI comparison to UVXY around 70, max-drawdown windows) are baked into the rules and drive most decisions.
Rides momentum in calm markets and pivots to leveraged Treasuries during turbulence, aiming for outsized growth (OOS ~48% annualized vs SPY ~23%), with volatility-driven risk controls. A dynamic ETF-based edge beyond the S&P 500.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Dec 20, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Momentum, trend-following, etf-based, volatility-driven, leveraged etfs, commodities
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 10 assets in total
Ticker
Type
DBA
Invesco DB Agriculture Fund
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
TMV
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X ETF
Stocks
UPRO
ProShares UltraPro S&P 500
Stocks
UVXY
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks