V2.3a | Commander BND Monthly | HTX - K-1 Free
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
Monthly, rule-based rotation using 63-day BND performance to switch between risk-on levered bets and risk-off hedges, with RSI-filtered asset picks and two main sleeves (Core Commander BND and an Aggressive Monthly Rotator) to adapt to different market regimes.{
- Core trigger: every month, measure the 63-day cumulative return of BND (a broad bond fund). If BND has risen over the last 63 days, the system leans toward risk-on; if BND is flat or negative, it leans toward risk-off. This decision is built into a multi-path decision tree.
- Panic Path: Risk Off — this path hunts for hedges and inverse/anti-beta positions. It screens a pool of bear/short ETFs and anti-beta funds (for example SPXS, SQQQ, SOXS, TYD, TMF, BTAL, FAZ) and picks the top 4 by RSI strength over the last ~20 days. These are then held 100% (i.e., full allocation) for the risk-off episode.
- Commander BND Monthly (63d CR BND) — Core risk-off/on logic gated by BND’s 63-day performance. When the system determines risk-off, this branch can override to a conservative stance; when risk-on, it moves to leveraged long bets. The “Risk ON, Go Leveraged Long” subtree selects 4 assets from a set of levered long bets (SOXL, TQQQ, TECL, UPRO, FAS, LTPZ) using the RSI screen over the last ~60 days (select bottom 4 by RSI, i.e., the strongest momentum names with low recent RSI values) and allocates 100% across those four.
- Risk Off, Rising Rates — under rising-rate conditions this path buys short-treasury and rate-hedge or other hedges (for example TMV, TYO, DIG, USDU, TECS, SPXS, GDXJ) using bottom- or top-RSI filters (as shown in the logic) and weights the top pick at 1 of 4 with a 20/100 weight tile, etc. This aims to hedge against rising rates with inverse or protective positions.
- Risk Off, Falling Rates (Harry Browne Edition) — this variant focuses on assets that tend to perform when rates fall and stocks rally, using a mix that includes levered equity exposure and select hedges (UPRO, TECL, TQQQ, TMF, GDXJ, BIL, SJB) to capture a potential “falling rates/rally” regime.
- Monthly Rotator (Aggressive) — a separate, more aggressive sleeve that rotates into a basket of high-momentum, levered positions (SOXL, TECL, SOXL, UPRO, GDXJ, MIDU, TBX, STIP, UJB, etc.), selecting 1–4 assets via RSI screens and weighting in a smaller 20% of the overall portfolio (as indicated by the 20/100 weight in that branch). This sleeve aims to catch persistent uptrends in a high-risk posture while limiting exposure through selective, momentum-driven picks.
- Weighting and cash allocation — the architecture uses cash-equal weightings within each selected group (i.e., even allocation among chosen assets) and an overall exposure framework where one group may carry a heavier allocation (80/100) and another a lighter allocation (20/100). The HTX designation notes a tax-structure wrapper (K-1 Free) intended to simplify tax reporting.
- The practical effect for a user: if market signals imply calm or modest growth, the system may lean into leveraged growth bets (SOXL, TQQQ, TECL, UPRO) with a diversified tilt. If signals imply risk or a rate shock, the system shifts into hedges and inverse/short ETFs to protect capital. All the while, a monthly cadence keeps turnover reasonably contained and aligned with a single decision point each month.
- Important caveats for a layperson: leveraged ETFs can magnify losses and have path-dependent behavior; the RSI-based rankings may lead to crowded trades; the multi-path structure can be sensitive to the exact thresholds and windows used (20 vs 60 days). Real-world results depend on commissions, slippage, tax costs, and how strictly the model adheres to backtested rules.
Out-of-sample: ~29.5% annualized return vs ~20.6% for the S&P. A disciplined, monthly risk-on/off framework uses momentum-driven levered bets with protective hedges to pursue bigger upside under rally regimes.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 1.06 | 0.2 | 0.45 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 348.51% | 13.16% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.8 | |
| 92,807.25% | 75.63% | -5.46% | -5.47% | 1.58 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$9,290,725.07Regulatory Fees
$4,894.65
Total Slippage
$32,196.59
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Feb 3, 2024
Trading Setting
Monthly
Type
Stocks
Category
Quantitative, tactical asset allocation, leveraged etfs, risk management, monthly rebalance
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 28 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
DIG
ProShares Ultra Energy
Stocks
FAS
Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
FAZ
Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3x ETF
Stocks
GDXJ
VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF
Stocks
LTPZ
PIMCO 15+ Year U.S. TIPS Index Exchange-Traded Fund
Stocks
MIDU
Direxion Daily Mid Cap Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
SJB
ProShares Short High Yield
Stocks