V2.2d | Commander BND Monthly | Trades Monthly
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A monthly, regime-aware mix of hedges, bonds, and leveraged stock bets driven by momentum (RSI) and a bond-based risk switch (63-day BND vs BSV). It trades through multiple risk-off and risk-on paths, with an aggressive monthly rotation sleeve to seek upside in strong regimes while keeping drawdown risk in check.
What it tries to do: adapt to changing markets by switching between a safety-first mode and an aggressive-growth mode, and by rotating into the most promising assets each month. How it decides in plain language:
- It watches two main levers: (1) a short-term momentum signal on the broad market (SPY) and (2) a longer-term bond signal (BND vs BSV). If SPY looks weak and bonds aren’t supporting risk, it enters a risk-off mode with hedges and inverse/short bets. If bonds signal strength relative to their peers, it leans into a risk-on sleeve of leveraged stock-exposure bets.
- The risk-off path (Panic Path) buys a small handful of hedges that are designed to do well when stocks fall (bear ETFs and anti-beta funds). These picks are filtered by momentum (RSI) to choose the strongest candidates and are capped to a small number (top 4).
- The risk-on path uses a “Commander BND Monthly” framework: if the 63-day bond signal is favorable (BND outperforms BSV), the model goes long with leverage in a set of aggressive equity/tech exposures (SOXL, TQQQ, TECL, UPRO, FAS) and a few inflation/credit hedges, selecting the best momentum runners via RSI over a longer window (60 days). This sleeve is rotated monthly and given a heavy but not exclusive weight.
- There are additional branches for nuanced rate environments: “Risk Off, Rising Rates” tilts to break-even or hedged positions when longer rates are rising, and “Risk Off, Falling Rates” tilts to aggressively long equities when rates are falling, while keeping a protective counterweight.
- A separate “Monthly Rotator (aggressive)” sleeve runs its own small universe (including gold miners, tech/leverage, energy, high yield) and rotates into the top or bottom momentum candidates each month to supplement the main sleeves.
- Rebalancing happens monthly, and the framework is built to be tax-efficient by focusing on funds that typically issue 1099s (K-1 Free).
In short, the strategy alternates between hedged, safer positions and levered bets on upturns, guided by momentum and rate signals and executed on a monthly cadence to keep risk in check while aiming for upside capture.
Regime-aware, monthly-rotating strategy blending hedges, bonds, and levered stock bets. Out-of-sample return ~37.5% vs SPY ~23%, with momentum-rate signals aimed at upside while managing risk. Expect higher drawdowns in stress.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.48 | 0.97 | 0.19 | 0.44 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 281.43% | 13.33% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.79 | |
| 33,210.24% | 72.1% | -4.62% | 2.6% | 1.57 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$3,331,023.70Regulatory Fees
$2,198.02
Total Slippage
$13,786.84
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Dec 9, 2023
Trading Setting
Monthly
Type
Stocks
Category
Dynamic allocation, rsi rotation, leveraged etfs, risk-on/off, long-dated treasuries, k-1 free
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 31 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
DIG
ProShares Ultra Energy
Stocks
ERX
Direxion Daily Energy Bull 2X ETF
Stocks
FAS
Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
FAZ
Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3x ETF
Stocks
GDXJ
VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF
Stocks
GUSH
Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. Bull 2X ETF
Stocks