Monthly, rule‑based strategy. A bond trend signal (BND vs BSV) decides Risk ON/OFF, with a separate panic trigger for sharp S&P drops. It rotates into leveraged equity or defensive hedges, plus a small monthly sleeve that adapts to recent moves.

Rebalanced monthly. 1) If the S&P 500 has dropped hard lately, it quickly shifts into Treasuries and inverse stock funds that tend to rise in sell‑offs. 2) Otherwise, it compares total‑bond vs short‑term bond trends (BND vs BSV, ~3 months) to choose Risk ON (leveraged stock/tech funds) or Risk OFF. In Risk OFF it checks long‑bond trend to pick rising‑rates hedges (short Treasuries + energy/US dollar + equity hedges) or falling‑rates safety (cash/T‑Bills or gold). A 20% sleeve rotates by recent strength.

Out-of-sample upside: ~43% annualized return vs SPY’s ~22%, driven by regime-driven leveraged growth and defensive hedges. Panic switches and monthly rebalancing aim to guard during crashes, though drawdowns can be larger in rare regimes.