v20231123 UPRO 60d BND, 2d BND, 15d drawdown, 5d Vix + Volatility checks
Today’s Change (Mar 13, 2026)
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About
Times entries with three gates: 1) If markets look overheated, flip to a volatility spike fund (UVXY). 2) If bonds beat T‑bills, ride UPRO unless a drop/vol spike favors TMF. 3) If rates rise, mix small UPRO with trend‑strong hedges (gold, Treasuries, USD) or go mostly hedges/cash.
Rules:
- If key market ETFs look overheated (strong short‑term gains), switch to UVXY (a fund that spikes with volatility) as a hedge.
- Else read rates via 60‑day BND vs BIL.
• If bonds OK: hold UPRO (3× S&P); unless SPY fell >5% and VIXY is high—then hold TMF (3× Treasuries).
• If rates rising: after a 2‑day bond bounce, hold ~1/3 UPRO + two hedges with the best 60‑day trend from GLD (gold), IEF/TMF (Treasuries), or UUP (US dollar); if no bounce, hold mostly those hedges and some cash.
Out-of-sample edge: ~58% annualized return vs ~17% for the S&P; Sharpe ~1.11 vs ~0.98; Calmar ~1.12. Regime-switching hedges and tactical leverage target higher upside with strong risk-adjusted performance.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.85 | 0.57 | 0.04 | 0.2 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 507.11% | 13.85% | -2.23% | -2.01% | 0.86 | |
| 8,567,481.09% | 126.34% | -7.5% | -4.04% | 1.89 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$856,758,108.82Regulatory Fees
$2,791,793.97
Total Slippage
$20,052,673.30
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jul 8, 2024
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, regime switching, leveraged etfs, volatility hedge, momentum, trend following, risk-on/risk-off
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 20 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
FAS
Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
QQQE
Direxion Shares ETF Trust Direxion NASDAQ-100 Equal Weighted Index ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks