v20231123 UPRO 60d BND, 2d BND, 15d drawdown, 5d Vix + Volatility checks
Today’s Change (Mar 6, 2026)
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About
Times entries with three gates: 1) If markets look overheated, flip to a volatility spike fund (UVXY). 2) If bonds beat T‑bills, ride UPRO unless a drop/vol spike favors TMF. 3) If rates rise, mix small UPRO with trend‑strong hedges (gold, Treasuries, USD) or go mostly hedges/cash.
Rules:
- If key market ETFs look overheated (strong short‑term gains), switch to UVXY (a fund that spikes with volatility) as a hedge.
- Else read rates via 60‑day BND vs BIL.
• If bonds OK: hold UPRO (3× S&P); unless SPY fell >5% and VIXY is high—then hold TMF (3× Treasuries).
• If rates rising: after a 2‑day bond bounce, hold ~1/3 UPRO + two hedges with the best 60‑day trend from GLD (gold), IEF/TMF (Treasuries), or UUP (US dollar); if no bounce, hold mostly those hedges and some cash.
Out-of-sample: far higher upside and better risk-adjusted returns vs S&P 500 (OOS return ~58%, Sharpe ~1.11, Calmar ~1.12, beta ~0.69). Hedge-driven risk control, but larger downturn drawdowns can occur.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.85 | 0.57 | 0.04 | 0.19 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 521.01% | 14.06% | 0.54% | -0.34% | 0.87 | |
| 8,850,662.06% | 127.14% | -7.54% | -1.06% | 1.9 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$885,076,206.32Regulatory Fees
$2,767,783.12
Total Slippage
$19,880,012.79
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jul 8, 2024
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, regime switching, leveraged etfs, volatility hedge, momentum, trend following, risk-on/risk-off
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 20 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
FAS
Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x Shares
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
QQQE
Direxion NASDAQ-100 Equal Weighted Index Shares
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x Shares
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (based on the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index; symbol AXTWEN)
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks