v20231123 UPRO 60d BND, 2d BND, 15d drawdown, 5d Vix
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
Rules-based, tactical mix that shifts between a leveraged S&P 500 fund and defensive assets (long Treasuries, gold, US dollar, or cash) using three cues: bond-vs-cash trend, a quick stock selloff check, and a short-term fear gauge.
1) Look back 60 days: are bonds (BND) doing better than cash (T‑bills, BIL)?
• If yes (rates stable/down): usually hold a turbo S&P 500 fund (UPRO). If stocks just fell fast and fear is high, temporarily switch to long Treasuries (TMF).
• If no (rates rising): be defensive. If bonds stop falling for 2 days, hold ~1/3 UPRO + ~2/3 split between the 2 strongest of gold (GLD), Treasuries (IEF/TMF), or the US dollar (UUP). If not, keep most in cash with only those 2 hedges.
Dynamic, rules-based mix of leveraged SPY and hedges (gold, Treasuries, USD) offers diversification and a distinct risk profile. Out-of-sample: 16.6% annualized return, Calmar 0.34, Sharpe 0.64—complements SPY, not just chase its returns.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Feb 3, 2024
Trading Setting
Threshold 5%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, trend following, volatility filter, leveraged etfs, macro regime, risk management
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 9 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (based on the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index; symbol AXTWEN)
Stocks
UPRO
ProShares UltraPro S&P 500
Stocks
UUP
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
Stocks
VIXY
ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks