v2.0 l Bull Baller l BrianE l 2011 backtest (KLBaller Mod)
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A daily, rule‑based momentum strategy that toggles between levered long ETFs (e.g., TQQQ, SPXL, SOXL, UPRO) in a bullish regime and hedges (SQQQ, UVXY) plus cash/bonds in bearish or stressed regimes, using RSI and moving averages to pick assets and weights. It also applies a commodity/defense overlay and volatility guards; the approach is aggressive and best suited for experienced, risk‑tolerant investors.
- The system runs every trading day and reframes a small basket of assets based on a ladder of rules.
- It looks at market direction using major proxies like SPY (S&P 500) and QQQ (Nasdaq) and then decides whether to pursue a bullish, bearish, or defensive posture.
- When bullish signals fire, it builds a “Bull” sleeve with leveraged long ETFs such as TQQQ, SPXL, SOXL, and UPRO (often plus TMF for bond‑leaning exposure) and weights them roughly evenly. It also uses a price momentum screen (moving-average return and RSI thresholds) to pick which levered longs to include.
- When risk signals rise or momentum fades, it shifts toward hedges: bear/volatility vehicles like SQQQ (inverse QQQ), UVXY (volatility futures), and other defensive assets (BIL, SHY, AGG, UUP for currency/bond hedges).
- A separate “Defense” module can tilt toward commodities (DBC) if volatility metrics justify it, but only after passing several risk checks (standard deviation, price momentum, etc.).
- The allocation is largely cash‑equal within the chosen set (100/100 weights in each selected group) and the system rebalances daily.
- The design also includes safeguards such as RSI‑based oversold/overbought checks and a condition to avoid long exposure if short‑term SPY performance is poor.
Out-of-sample annualized return ~40% vs S&P ~23%, driven by tactical leverage in uptrends with hedges. Higher upside potential, but with higher volatility and larger drawdowns—best for experienced, risk-tolerant investors.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 18, 2022
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Quantitative strategy, momentum, leveraged etfs, tactical asset allocation, volatility hedging
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 20 assets in total
Ticker
Type
AGG
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF
Stocks
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
SOXS
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X ETF
Stocks
SPHB
Invesco S&P 500 High Beta ETF
Stocks