V2 | Emerging Markets | Otterly Foolish | Dereck Nielsen Mod
Today’s Change (Jan 19, 2026)
—
A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A tactical emerging‑markets strategy that shifts between leveraged long, inverse, rotating the strongest EM countries, and bonds. It uses trend, overbought/oversold readings, and short‑term momentum to decide when to attack, hedge, or play defense.
Daily, it checks trend: is EM (EEM) in an uptrend? (a fast 8‑day average above a slow 200‑day). If yes and EM is “too hot” (EDC’s RSI—a 0–100 heat gauge—>80), it briefly flips short (EDZ). Otherwise it goes pro‑EM: 35% in the 4 strongest EM country funds (by 60‑day strength), 32% in EDC (3x long EM), 33% in EMXC (EM ex‑China). If not in an uptrend: if very washed‑out (RSI<26) buy EDC for a bounce; else if still weak pick EDZ or BSV (short‑term bonds) by short‑term strength; otherwise hold VWOB (EM gov bonds). Uses 3x ETFs; volatile.
EM-focused, rules-based strategy blending trend, momentum and rotation. Out-of-sample return 26.45% vs SPY 23.32%, with higher drawdown (~29.5% vs ~18.8%), but Calmar ~0.90—offering stronger upside with active risk control.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.55 | 0.12 | 0 | 0.05 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 220.36% | 14.72% | 2.19% | 5.01% | 0.82 | |
| 5,901.86% | 62.11% | 20.99% | 21.25% | 1.38 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$600,185.73Regulatory Fees
$1,372.87
Total Slippage
$8,655.13
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Nov 30, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Emerging markets, tactical asset allocation, trend following, mean reversion, country rotation, leveraged etfs, bonds, risk-on/risk-off
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 25 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
ECH
iShares MSCI Chile ETF
Stocks
EDC
Direxion Daily Emerging Markets Bull 3X Shares, Shares of beneficial interest, no par value
Stocks
EDZ
Direxion Daily Emerging Markets Bear 3x Shares
Stocks
EEM
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF
Stocks
EIDO
iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF
Stocks
EMXC
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China ETF
Stocks
EPHE
iShares MSCI Philippines ETF
Stocks
EPOL
iShares MSCI Poland ETF
Stocks
EPU
iShares MSCI Peru and Global Exposure ETF
Stocks