V2 BWC Modified Bitcoin Strategy | Dereck Nielsen
Today’s Change (Oct 23, 2026)
—
A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
Rules-based Bitcoin strategy. Own BITO in uptrends, step aside on sharp drops, and short briefly when it’s too hot. In weaker markets, rotate into the strongest BTC proxies (miners/spot funds) or hold T‑bills. Rebalanced daily; heavy risk controls.
- Uses BITO (a Bitcoin ETF) as the main “compass.”
- If BITO is in a long-term uptrend (price above its 200‑day average), it usually owns BITO, but:
• If short-term drop > ~5% in 5 days, it parks in T‑bills (SHV).
• If momentum is extremely hot (RSI > ~75), it briefly flips to the inverse ETF (BITI).
- If not in an uptrend, it may:
• Buy BITO only when very oversold (RSI very low), or
• Rotate into the 1–2 strongest Bitcoin‑related names (miners like MARA/RIOT/CLSK or spot funds like GBTC/BITX) based on 3–10 day performance, with extra checks; if a pick fails, it holds T‑bills (BIL/SHV).
- Daily rebalance.
Adds tactical Bitcoin exposure with rules-based risk controls and cash hedges to diversify a S&P core. In out-of-sample tests it showed modest risk-adjusted results but higher drawdowns than SPY—best as crypto-tilt diversification, not a replacement.
Loading backtest data...
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 30, 2026
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Crypto, bitcoin, trend following, momentum rotation, tactical allocation, risk management, daily rebalanced
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 25 assets in total
Ticker
Type
ARBK
Argo Blockchain plc American Depositary Shares
Stocks
BDGE
Stocks
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BITI
ProShares Short Bitcoin ETF
Stocks
BITO
ProShares Bitcoin ETF
Stocks
BITX
2x Bitcoin ETF
Stocks
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
BTBT
Bit Digital, Inc. Ordinary Shares
Stocks
BTDR
Bitdeer Technologies Group Class A Ordinary Shares
Stocks
CIFR
Cipher Digital Inc. Common Stock
Stocks