A semiconductor-focused strategy that usually owns SOXX, uses 3x SOXL after sharp tech selloffs, and hides in short-term Treasury bonds when the broader market looks weak.

This strategy makes one decision each day. 1) It first checks whether the overall U.S. stock market looks healthy by comparing SPY’s recent average price to its long-term average. 2) If the market looks healthy, it buys SOXX, a fund focused on semiconductor companies like Nvidia and AMD. 3) If the market looks weak, it asks whether tech stocks have been sold off so hard that they may be due for a bounce. It measures that with RSI, a 0–100 score of recent price strength. Below 30 means “very beaten down.” 4) If that oversold signal appears, it buys SOXL, a much more aggressive 3x semiconductor fund. 5) If not, it checks whether the market is at least above its average of the last month. If yes, it holds SOXX. If no, it moves to SHY, a short-term Treasury bond fund, to play defense.

Out-of-sample edge: ~54% annualized return vs SPY ~22%, Calmar ~1.12, with built-in risk controls (trend filter, dip-buying in semis, SHY defense). Higher upside exposure to semiconductors with disciplined risk vs the S&P.