V.1.Z Dereck's Secular Market Framework
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
Regime playbook: use SPY’s long trend to toggle growth vs defense. In uptrends hold a stock+bond core (NTSX), add DBMF when hot; in downtrends favor gold, Treasuries, managed futures, and sometimes short tech (PSQ). 2008–2023 backtest: 19.1%/yr, -16.5% max drop.
Decide regime with SPY long averages: if 200‑day > 1000‑day, long‑term up; else down. Then a 50/200‑day cross and RSI (0–100 heat meter; <30 oversold, >60 hot) pick positions: NTSX (stock+bond core); add DBMF (managed‑futures) when hot; buy XLK (tech) on QQQ dips; else use GLD (gold) and Treasuries (SHY/IEF/TLT). In hard downtrends it may use PSQ (short QQQ) or the best of RSP/RPV/QUAL/BTAL.
Out-of-sample, this strategy matches the S&P on risk-adjusted return (Sharpe ~1.33) while cutting max drawdown from 18.8% to 10.8% and preserving a strong Calmar ~1.93. Slightly lower annualized return, but far better downside protection and resilience.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.12 | 0.5 | 0.44 | 0.66 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 160% | 15.08% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.81 | |
| 271.34% | 21.27% | -2.02% | -0.22% | 1.36 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$37,133.55Regulatory Fees
$60.55
Total Slippage
$372.22
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Feb 13, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 12%
Type
Stocks
Category
Regime-based, trend-following, tactical asset allocation, managed futures, tech tilt, risk management, bonds, gold, shorting
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 14 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
DBMF
iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
NTSX
WisdomTree U.S. Efficient Core Fund
Stocks
PSQ
ProShares Short QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
QUAL
iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF
Stocks
RPV
Invesco S&P 500 Pure Value ETF
Stocks
RSP
Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF
Stocks