V.1.Z Dereck's Secular Market Framework
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
Regime-based plan toggling offense/defense using long-, medium-, and short-term trend signals. In strength it holds NTSX; in weakness it shifts to managed futures, gold, Treasuries, Tech dip-buys, or short QQQ. Backtest 2008–23: 19.1%/yr, 16.5% max drop (not guaranteed).
Three layers:
1) Long-term: SPY (S&P 500) 200‑day avg vs 1000‑day → Secular Bull or Bear.
2) Medium: 50 vs 200‑day (“Golden/Death Cross”).
3) Short-term: RSI (0–100; <30 oversold, >60 hot).
Positions:
- Strength: mainly NTSX (stocks+bonds). If hot, add DBMF (trend‑following).
- Weakness: if QQQ (Nasdaq 100) is oversold, buy XLK (Tech); otherwise use DBMF, GLD (gold), and Treasuries (SHY/IEF/TLT). In deep Bears it can short QQQ (PSQ) or use sturdier styles (RSP/RPV/QUAL/BTAL).
Regime-driven, multi-asset strategy aims for steadier growth with less pain in downturns than the S&P 500. OOS performance: ~20.9% annualized, Calmar ~1.93, max drawdown ~10.8%, beta ~0.81—growth with resilience.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Feb 13, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 12%
Type
Stocks
Category
Regime-based, trend-following, tactical allocation, multi-asset, us equities, treasuries, gold, managed futures, shorting, momentum
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 14 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
DBMF
iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
NTSX
WisdomTree U.S. Efficient Core Fund
Stocks
PSQ
ProShares Short QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
QUAL
iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF
Stocks
RPV
Invesco S&P 500 Pure Value ETF
Stocks
RSP
Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF
Stocks