V1d Fund Surfing + V2 | Bear BUYDIPS, Bull HFEAR | Michael B | No K-1
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
Two-part, rules-based mix. Half “fund-surfs” (buy the most oversold tech or Treasuries when calm; hide in Treasuries when jumpy). Half regime-switches: in drawdowns buy sharp 5‑day dips; otherwise run a 55/45 leveraged stocks/bonds barbell.
Split 50/50.
V1: If S&P volatility is low, buy the most “oversold” by RSI (low = recently sold) among TECL/TQQQ (3x tech/Nasdaq) or Treasuries (IEF/SHY). If volatility is high, hold Treasuries (SHY/TLT).
V2: If the S&P is >10% below its 1‑yr high, buy 5‑day dips in QQQ/SPY with 3x funds (TQQQ/UPRO) unless a +5% day—then T‑bills (BIL). Otherwise, use a 55/45 leveraged stocks/bonds mix (UPRO+TQQQ vs TMF) sized by recent vol. ETFs only (no K‑1).
Out-of-sample, this strategy targets higher upside than SPY: ~36.4% annualized vs ~22.2%, with a disciplined 50/50 engine and dynamic hedges. Expect larger drawdowns but stronger growth and better equity/bond diversification; ETFs only, no K‑1.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 2, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 5%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, leveraged etfs, buy-the-dip, trend filter, volatility targeting, stocks, treasuries, risk-on/risk-off
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 10 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x Shares
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (based on the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index; symbol AXTWEN)
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UPRO
ProShares UltraPro S&P 500
Stocks