V1a TQQQ or not - Replace UVXY w/ VXX
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A daily tactical strategy that rotates between leveraged growth ETFs (TQQQ, SOXL), volatility hedges (UVXY or VXX), and cash/bond proxies, using RSI, recent returns, and drawdown signals to switch regimes. It replaces UVXY with VXX under certain conditions and aims to protect during volatility spikes while chasing upside in calm markets.
- Daily rebalance across a multi-asset set: leveraged equity ETFs (TQQQ, SOXL), volatility hedges (UVXY or VXX), and cash/bond proxies (BIL, IEF, TMF, BND).
- The system evaluates many conditions in a layered decision tree. Inside-out, it first checks sensitive signals on individual assets (momentum via RSI, recent returns, drawdowns, price vs moving average).
- If volatility is deemed Huge (high risk environment), the model pivots toward hedges and safer assets, sometimes replacing UVXY with VXX, and may tilt into short-term Treasuries as ballast.
- If the market is Normal, the strategy leans toward exposure to leveraged growth assets (TQQQ, SOXL) with a structured risk overlay (bond vs stock checks, de-risking if needed).
- A Mean Reversion branch looks for extremes (e.g., oversold conditions on SOXL or RSI extremes) and uses contrarian bets that favor a return toward normal levels, while still respecting risk controls.
- The asset groups are integrated with weight logic (often pushing for strong emphasis on a single group when conditions fire) and with an explicit path for “Bond > Stock” and “Bond Mid-term < Long-term” style rosters to govern risk posture.
- The system continuously balances the appetite for upside with a safety net against tail risk by using short-term risk signals, volatility hedges, and cash/bond allocations. This is not a single indicator strategy; it is a composite, rule-based regime-switching framework intended to adapt to market regimes.
Out-of-sample: ~51% annualized return vs S&P ~24%, with Calmar ~1.16 and Sharpe ~1.0. Regime-switching between leveraged growth and hedges seeks big upside while guarding against volatility—though drawdowns can be large in downturns.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.25 | 1.15 | 0.13 | 0.36 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 172.29% | 13.1% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.73 | |
| 2,329,442.53% | 244.03% | -1.65% | 2.51% | 2.29 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$232,954,252.73Regulatory Fees
$626,769.50
Total Slippage
$4,493,626.83
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
May 4, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Leveraged equities, volatility hedging, tactical asset allocation, mean reversion, bond-tilt
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 11 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UVXY
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks