V1a TQQQ or not - Replace UVXY w/ SOXS
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A daily tactical strategy that mostly bets on Nasdaq upside with TQQQ, but autonomously shifts to hedges (UVXY, SOXS) and bonds when momentum or volatility signals warn of risk, aiming to capture upside while protecting capital.
What is happening, in plain language:
- RSI explained (layman): RSI is a number that tells you if prices have moved up too fast recently. A high RSI (near or above 70-80) suggests the market may have gone up too quickly and could pull back. A low RSI suggests it may have room to rise. The strategy uses a 10-day RSI to decide some moves.
- The day-by-day flow:
1) Start with a core exposure (usually TQQQ, a very aggressive Nasdaq bet).
2) If the Nasdaq signal gets extreme (RSI over 79 on the 10-day window), switch toward hedges like SOXS (bear semis) instead of staying fully in TQQQ.
3) If volatility spikes or other momentum conditions show stress, add or switch to UVXY (volatility) or other hedges, or rotate into semis (SOXL) depending on what the signals say.
4) There are rules that compare bonds vs stocks using bond ETFs (BND, IEF, TMF, TLT) and cash proxies (BIL). When risk looks elevated, the system tilts toward bonds or cash to reduce risk; when risk is lower and signals look favorable, it may tilt back toward equities.
5) The positioning is designed to be a single active position per day (one main exposure), with the rest in a cash-like state, and the balance adjusted daily.
- Why this structure: The idea is to try to ride Nasdaq strength when conditions are favorable, but to protect capital with hedges and safer assets when signals indicate more risk or potential reversals.
- Limitations: The approach relies on technical signals that can produce false positives; it also involves expensive leveraged instruments and frequent trades, which can erode performance over time due to costs and rapid regime changes.
Cap Nasdaq upside with a rule-based system that hedges when risk rises. In out-of-sample tests it targets much higher upside (~63% annualized) than SPY (~22%), while delivering solid risk-adjusted returns (Calmar ~1.44).
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 30, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Leverage-etfs, tactical-allocation, volatility-hedging, mean-reversion, sector-rotation
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 11 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
SOXS
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks