V1a Super Simple Symphony - Less Derivatives -
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
—
A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
Simple daily switch. If short‑term T‑bills (BIL) recently beat the S&P 500 (SPY), rotate into defensive ETFs (utilities, gold, energy). Otherwise go risk‑on with 3x stock ETFs (UPRO, TQQQ). Equal‑weight holdings and rebalance daily.
Each day it checks the last 60 days: did cash-like T‑bills (BIL) beat the S&P 500 (SPY)?
- If yes (weak market): hold defensives—VPU (utilities stocks), GLD (gold), XLE (energy stocks), split equally.
- If no (strong market): hold growth via leveraged ETFs—UPRO (3x S&P 500) and TQQQ (3x Nasdaq‑100/big tech), split equally.
Rebalances daily.
Out-of-sample: ~39% annual return with Calmar ~1.20, signaling strong risk-adjusted upside vs SPY. Regime-switching shifts to defensives in weak markets and 3x leveraged growth in strong markets, offering higher upside with drawdowns ~32.6% vs SPY ~18.8%.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.11 | 1.68 | 0.58 | 0.76 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 726.91% | 14.06% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.85 | |
| 8,795.78% | 32.23% | -0.54% | -0.41% | 0.93 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$889,577.51Regulatory Fees
$1,404.17
Total Slippage
$7,380.00
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Feb 11, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, risk-on/risk-off, trend-following, sector rotation, leveraged etfs
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 7 assets in total
Ticker
Type