V1a Simplified CQ & BN | BTC Rally Rider FTLT
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A daily-rebalanced, two-track tactical strategy that (1) bets on a Bitcoin rally via a short-list of BTC-related assets with RSI/gate checks, and (2) tilts among a wide set of leveraged ETFs to ride market momentum while using volatility and bond signals to guard against a crash. It’s highly leveraged and rule-based, aiming to catch crypto strength and opportunistically time the broader market, but it carries high risk and complexity.
- The strategy rebalances every trading day. It runs two main tracks in parallel: a Bitcoin rally track and a broader, momentum-driven equity track.
- Bitcoin track: focuses on a small set of crypto-related tickers (Coinbase stock; crypto miners; crypto ETFs; and a couple of crypto-related funds). It uses a short-term momentum ranking (moving-average return) to pick the single best candidate to own, and it gates entry with a momentum/RSI check on a Bitcoin ETF proxy (BITO). If a related condition signals strength, it allocates 100% to the top BTC-related asset; if not, it falls back to other risk checks. A short list of potential BTC components includes COIN, BITF, BITX, and other crypto proxies, with BITI acting as an inverse BTC hedge in some signals.
- Equity/multi-asset track: uses a wide array of 2x/3x leveraged ETFs to express bullish or bearish views on various sectors and markets (tech, semiconductors, biotech, real estate, small caps, overall S&P 500). It evaluates multiple signals (relative strength, moving averages, standard deviation-like checks, volatility indicators) to decide which side to favor (bullish vs bearish or tilt to specific sectors). There are explicit “Bull” and “Bear” branches (e.g., TECL/TQQQ/SOXL vs SPXL/SPXS, LABU/LABD, DRN/DRV, URTY/TMQ-like proxies).
- Risk controls and regime filtering: the tree contains volatility checks (VXX-related signals), mean-reversion tests for bonds vs stocks, and a separate “BondSignal” layer that weighs Treasury ETFs (TMF, TMV, BIL, IEF, SHY, etc.) to steer risk-off when volatility rises or when market conditions look stressed. There are filters to keep some cash exposure and to tilt to shorter-duration bonds during risk-off.
- Binding constraints: weights are often shown as 100% on a single asset, or as fixed splits (e.g., 50/50 in some blocks), and there are explicit “top”/“bottom” selection rules with moving-average-return or RSI thresholds. The net effect is a continually adapting mix intended to ride BTC strength while opportunistically exploiting momentum in leveraged equity bets with built-in hedges and risk-reduction gates.
- Complexity note: because this strategy camps on many leveraged products, taxes, compounding effects, and the risk of large drawdowns in choppy markets are important considerations. A practical takeaway for a layman is that this strategy tries to “ride the Bitcoin bull” when momentum looks good, but otherwise uses a big toolbox of bullish/bearish bets on different market parts and a volatility/risk screen to try to avoid big losses.
Out-of-sample: ~45% annualized return vs ~21% for the S&P, ~0.85 Sharpe, with built-in risk guards. BTC momentum plus leveraged equity bets offer higher upside—tolerating more volatility and larger drawdowns than the S&P.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.96 | 2.57 | 0.18 | 0.42 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52.07% | 17.24% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 1.11 | |
| 1,170.87% | 162.44% | 1.18% | 3.52% | 1.48 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$127,087.15Regulatory Fees
$580.97
Total Slippage
$3,150.41
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Dec 19, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Crypto, leveraged etfs, tactical multi-asset, volatility/risk management, day-rebalanced
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 35 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BITF
Bitfarms Ltd. Common Stock
Stocks
BITI
ProShares Short Bitcoin ETF
Stocks
BITO
ProShares Bitcoin ETF
Stocks
BITX
2x Bitcoin Strategy ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
COIN
Coinbase Global, Inc. Class A Common Stock
Stocks
CONL
GraniteShares ETF Trust GraniteShares 2x Long COIN Daily ETF
Stocks
DRN
Direxion Daily Real Estate Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
DRV
Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X ETF
Stocks