A tactical, mostly‑tech strategy that flips between offense and defense using two dials: market trend and how “stretched” prices are. In good trends it owns QQQ; when overheated it hedges. In weak trends it buys dips or shifts to dollar/defensive sleeves.

Two dials drive it: trend and “stretched.” Trend = price vs a long‑term average; above it = risk‑on, below = risk‑off. “Stretched” uses a 0–100 heat gauge (RSI): high = too hot, low = washed‑out. Risk‑on: mainly hold QQQ (big tech). If too hot, hedge with PSQ (inverse QQQ). A side sleeve, guided by bond (TLT) and dollar (UUP/USDU) trends, can rotate into the U.S. dollar, commodities/oil/materials/gold miners; else back to QQQ. Risk‑off: buy sharp dips (QLD or SPY) when washed‑out; otherwise use SHY or PSQ. A TIP vs STIP check helps choose offense (QLD/SSO) vs defense (USDU/BTAL).

Out-of-sample edge: 30.44% annualized return vs 25.03% for the S&P, 17.7% max drawdown vs 18.8%, and Calmar 1.72. Higher risk-adjusted performance with tighter downside and steadier volatility—strong potential for durable growth.