A monthly strategy that swings 60% between aggressive tech, long-term bonds, or defensive assets based on market stress signals, while keeping 40% in a permanent safety cushion.

Each month, the strategy first asks: are risky corporate bonds doing better than cash over the last 30 days? It uses JNK (junk bonds) versus BIL (T-bills) as that test. If yes, it puts 60% into TQQQ, a very aggressive fund tied to big tech stocks. If not, it checks whether long-term U.S. government bonds have been rising over the last 90 days. If yes, that 60% goes into TMF, a very aggressive long-bond fund. If not, that 60% is spread across defensive holdings: the U.S. dollar, gold, consumer-staples stocks, and short-term Treasurys. The other 40% always stays in a safety mix of the U.S. dollar, gold, and short-term Treasurys.

Out-of-sample shows ~29.5% annualized return vs ~21.9% for the S&P 500, with a Calmar near 1 and a disciplined 60/40 risk-on/risk-off design—aiming for higher upside while preserving a built-in safety sleeve.