V1a Monthly JNK canary Replace UPRO with TQQQ
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
Monthly, two-sleeve allocation: 60% dynamic (tilts to TQQQ if JNK outperforms BIL over 30 days; else tilts to TMF via a 90-day check, or falls back to Safety Mix) and 40% Safety Mix (UUP, GLD, XLP, SHY). Rebalances monthly; replaces UPRO with TQQQ as Nasdaq proxy.
Plain language description:
- Rebalance happens once per month.
- Split capital into two sleeves: 60% dynamic sleeve and 40% safety sleeve.
- Dynamic sleeve logic (60%): first compare the last 30 days performance: JNK (junk bonds) vs BIL (short-term Treasuries). If JNK has risen more than BIL in the last 30 days, the whole 60% is invested in TQQQ (Nasdaq 100 3x levered).
- If JNK underperforms BIL over 30 days, run a second rule: check whether a longer-term Treasury signal favors levered Treasuries (TMF) versus plain long Treasuries (TLT) based on a 90-day view. If the TMF/TLT signal is favorable, place the 60% into TMF.
- If neither condition is satisfied, the 60% is moved into a defensive “Safety Mix” basket (a sub-group that includes USD, gold, consumer staples, and short-term Treasuries).
- Safety sleeve (40%) is always invested in the same defensive basket (UUP, GLD, XLP, SHY).
- Overall, the plan uses a JNK canary to tilt toward risk-on (TQQQ) in improving credit-risk environments and reverts to hedges (TMF or Safety Mix) as signals weaken. It deliberately uses a Nasdaq proxy (TQQQ) instead of UPRO as the core risk-on vehicle when conditions favor equities, while keeping a substantial safety allocation via the Safety Mix.
- Assets involved and their roles (in simple terms):
• JNK: high-yield bonds, risk-on signal
• BIL: very short-term government bonds, risk-off benchmark
• TQQQ: 3x levered Nasdaq exposure (high risk/high reward)
• TMF: 3x levered long Treasuries (defensive tilt within leverage)
• TLT: long-dated Treasuries (underlying for trend checks)
• UUP: bets on a stronger dollar
• GLD: gold as a hedge/inflation-like asset
• XLP: defensive consumer staples sector
• SHY: very short-term Treasuries (short-term safety)
• UPRO: reference levered S&P 500 proxy (not used in this version; replaced by TQQQ)
- The design aims to be simple in concept (monthly choices) but can be quite dynamic in allocation depending on recent price behavior. It relies on straightforward lookbacks (30-day and 90-day) and simple comparisons to decide whether to risk more (TQQQ), tilt toward longer-duration leverage (TMF), or park in safety (Safety Mix).
- It is important to note that levered ETFs (TQQQ, TMF) amplify both gains and losses, so the monthly reset reduces some compounding risk but still implies higher volatility than unlevered funds.
Dynamic 60/40 strategy tilts to 3x Nasdaq (TQQQ) on favorable signals and shifts to safety when risk rises. Aims for higher long-run gains vs S&P 500. OOS annualized return ≈38.5% with Calmar ≈1.28, but max drawdown ≈30% (higher risk).
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.22 | 0.68 | 0.17 | 0.41 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 726.91% | 14.06% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.85 | |
| 8,407.76% | 31.87% | 0.97% | 1.56% | 1.12 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$850,776.01Regulatory Fees
$427.17
Total Slippage
$2,361.42
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jan 3, 2023
Trading Setting
Monthly
Type
Stocks
Category
Multi-asset, risk-on/risk-off, leveraged etfs, monthly rebalance, jnk canary
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 9 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
JNK
State Street SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UUP
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
Stocks
XLP
State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks