V1a | Fund Surfing | Michael B
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
Single‑fund, high‑risk “wave riding.” Calm markets: buy the most oversold of SPY/SHY/SOXL/TECL/UPRO. Scary markets: trade 3x long/short 20+yr Treasuries (TMF/TMV) based on sharp weekly drops; otherwise hold SPY.
It first checks market “fear” using UVXY’s 20‑day RSI (0–100; high=hot). If fear isn’t hot (<70), it buys 1 fund: the one with the lowest RSI (most recently sold off) among SPY (S&P 500), SHY (short Treasuries), SOXL/TECL/UPRO (3x bull semis/tech/S&P). If fear is hot, it “surfs” 20+yr Treasuries: buys TMF (3x long) or TMV (3x short) whichever fell most over 5 days; if neither fell >10%, it holds SPY.
Dynamic regime strategy: in calm markets buy oversold leaders; in fear, ride leveraged Treasuries. Out-of-sample: ~48% annual return vs ~23% S&P, Sharpe ~0.92, Calmar ~0.59. Higher drawdown risk, but meaningful upside vs SPY.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.53 | 2.19 | 0.38 | 0.61 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 623.63% | 14.84% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 0.91 | |
| 1,816,052.86% | 98.52% | 1.4% | -10.96% | 1.45 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$181,615,286.10Regulatory Fees
$618,801.48
Total Slippage
$4,426,476.17
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Dec 20, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, volatility regime, mean reversion, leveraged etfs, treasuries, technology, semiconductors
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 8 assets in total
Ticker
Type
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x Shares
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (based on the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index; symbol AXTWEN)
Stocks
TMV
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (based on the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index; symbol AXTWEN)
Stocks
UPRO
ProShares UltraPro S&P 500
Stocks
UVXY
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks