V1a | Fund Surfing | Michael B
Today’s Change (Apr 20, 2026)
—
A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
Single‑fund, tactical strategy. When fear is moderate, buy the most beaten‑down pick from a small equity/bond list (aiming for a quick rebound). When fear runs hot, switch to leveraged long/short long‑Treasury ETFs (TMF/TMV), defaulting to SPY if bonds are calm.
Holds one fund at a time.
1) Check fear via UVXY’s 20‑day RSI (a 0–100 “hot/cold” score; 70+ is overheated). UVXY jumps when fear spikes.
• If fear isn’t overheated (RSI<70): buy the one with the lowest RSI among SOXL (3x chips), TECL (3x tech), UPRO (3x S&P 500), SPY (S&P 500), or SHY (short‑term Treasuries)—the most beaten‑down, aiming for a bounce.
• Else (fear high): pick TMF (3x long 20+yr Treasuries) or TMV (3x short) based on which had the smaller worst 5‑day drop. If both sides were calm, hold SPY.
Out-of-sample, this tactical single-fund strategy delivers 48.38% annualized return vs SPY 23.17%, with Sharpe 0.92 and Calmar 0.59. It shifts to leveraged Treasuries in fear and buys oversold equities when calm—greater upside than SPY, with higher drawdowns.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.52 | 2.19 | 0.38 | 0.62 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 652.03% | 15.01% | 6.16% | 5.09% | 0.92 | |
| 1,815,487.86% | 97.36% | 4.83% | -3.37% | 1.44 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$181,558,786.03Regulatory Fees
$633,911.11
Total Slippage
$4,534,982.04
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Dec 20, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, volatility filter, mean reversion, leveraged etfs, equities, treasuries
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 8 assets in total
Ticker
Type
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
TMV
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X ETF
Stocks
UPRO
ProShares UltraPro S&P 500
Stocks
UVXY
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks