V1a | Fund Surfing | Michael B
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
Single‑fund, tactical strategy. When fear is moderate, buy the most beaten‑down pick from a small equity/bond list (aiming for a quick rebound). When fear runs hot, switch to leveraged long/short long‑Treasury ETFs (TMF/TMV), defaulting to SPY if bonds are calm.
Holds one fund at a time.
1) Check fear via UVXY’s 20‑day RSI (a 0–100 “hot/cold” score; 70+ is overheated). UVXY jumps when fear spikes.
• If fear isn’t overheated (RSI<70): buy the one with the lowest RSI among SOXL (3x chips), TECL (3x tech), UPRO (3x S&P 500), SPY (S&P 500), or SHY (short‑term Treasuries)—the most beaten‑down, aiming for a bounce.
• Else (fear high): pick TMF (3x long 20+yr Treasuries) or TMV (3x short) based on which had the smaller worst 5‑day drop. If both sides were calm, hold SPY.
V1a Surfing seeks bigger upside than the S&P 500 by betting on mean-reversion in beaten stocks and leveraged Treasuries during fear. OOS: ~48% annualized vs SPY ~23%, with higher drawdowns - best for risk-tolerant, opportunistic investors.
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OOS Start Date
Dec 20, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, volatility filter, mean reversion, leveraged etfs, equities, treasuries
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 8 assets in total
Ticker
Type
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
TMV
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X ETF
Stocks
UPRO
ProShares UltraPro S&P 500
Stocks
UVXY
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks