V1a Dereck Nielsen All Weather Portfolio
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A dynamic, multi-asset, regime-aware strategy that rotates between growth, safety, and diversifiers using momentum and trend signals, with a cash buffer and a 7% drift tolerance. It employs leveraged/inverse ETFs to capture big moves or provide hedges, aiming to perform in bull markets while protecting capital in bear or sideways markets.
- The portfolio is split into a cash buffer and several macro groups (growth-oriented and defensive).
- Signals come from momentum and trend indicators: RSI (relative strength index) and moving-average tests.
- When signals indicate broad market strength, exposure tilts toward growth assets (QQQ, SPY) and leveraged plays (SSO, QLD) to amplify gains.
- When signals indicate overbought conditions, drawdown risk, or regime shift, exposure shifts toward bonds (TLT, IEI, IEF, SHV), cash, and hedges (inverse ETFs like PSQ, QID, SH, SDS) to protect capital.
- A separate Commodities/Gold/Bonds module uses GLD, DBC, NANR, XME, SMH, and related assets with moving-average and RSI-like checks to provide diversification and inflation hedging.
- There is no fixed calendar rebalancing; drift is allowed within a 7% corridor. Rebalancing is triggered when weights move beyond the corridor or when a regime signal flips.
- The design is modular: groups can be adjusted or swapped, allowing experimentation with different signals or assets without redesigning the entire system.
Out-of-sample edge: dynamic, regime-aware strategy targets upside with hedges and a cash buffer. Returns ~28% annualized vs 23.6% for the S&P, Sharpe ~1.75 vs 1.48, lower beta (~0.84), and controlled drawdowns.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Mar 26, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 7%
Type
Stocks
Category
All-weather, momentum, dynamic asset allocation, multi-asset, risk management, leveraged etfs
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 19 assets in total
Ticker
Type
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
IEI
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
NANR
State Street SPDR S&P North American Natural Resources ETF
Stocks
PSQ
ProShares Short QQQ
Stocks
QID
ProShares UltraShort QQQ
Stocks
QLD
ProShares Ultra QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SDS
ProShares UltraShort S&P500
Stocks