V1a Commander BND | 4 Trade Days / Year | Replace PST w/ TBT, VIXM w/ VIXY, USDU w/ TLT, & UGL w/ GLD
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A quarterly, RSI-filtered tactical strategy that toggles between a leveraged equity tilt (risk-on) and defensive hedges (risk-off) using BND vs BIL and TLT vs BIL signals. It selects a small number of assets via RSI within predefined pools and weights them to form a four-asset or three-asset lineup (with some cash), aiming to ride momentum in good times and hedge in bad times.
At each quarter start:
- Measure 60-day returns: BND (broad bond ETF) vs BIL (short-term cash ETF). If BND > BIL, treat as ‘Risk On’ and pick 4 assets from a risk-on pool (SOXL, TECL, TQQQ, UPRO, FAS, TMF) using RSI (last 10 days) to rank them and keep the 4 with the lowest RSI, equally weighted. If BND ≤ BIL, treat as ‘Risk Off’ and check 20-day momentum of TLT vs BIL. If TLT < BIL (rising rates environment), select 3 assets from a rising-rate risk-off pool (TLT, XLP, XLE, SDS, QID, VIXY, BTAL) by RSI, 60% allocated across them (rest as cash). If TLT ≥ BIL (falling rates environment), select 4 assets from a falling-rate risk-off pool (XLP, XLV, SHY, TMF, GLD) by RSI, 80% allocated across them (20% cash). Rebalance every quarter.
Notes:
- RSI is a momentum gauge; lower RSI values imply relatively weaker short-term momentum and are used to pick assets in these pools. The specific pools mix leveraged stock/sector ETFs (risk-on) with hedges and defensive assets (risk-off).
- The strategy uses several 3x leveraged ETFs (e.g., SOXL, TECL, TQQQ, UPRO, FAS) which amplify moves and risk; suitability depends on risk tolerance and transaction costs.
- TBT and VIXY provide hedges against rate and volatility spikes; GLD (gold) often serves as a hedge in falling-rate environments.
- The exact weighting (e.g., 60/100 or 80/100) implies some cash or cushion portion depending on the sub-strategy, and may affect drawdowns and total return.
RSI-driven, quarterly risk-on/risk-off strategy that leverages momentum in up markets and hedges during downturns. Out-of-sample: ~34.9% annualized return vs ~22.3% for the S&P, but with larger drawdowns (~53%) and lower risk-adjusted efficiency.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 0.67 | 0.07 | 0.26 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 635.35% | 14.82% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.91 | |
| 154,433% | 66.3% | 4.61% | 12.79% | 1.4 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$15,453,299.79Regulatory Fees
$3,656.79
Total Slippage
$24,923.86
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Mar 4, 2023
Trading Setting
Quarterly
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, rsi-based selection, leveraged etfs, risk-on/risk-off, momentum
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 19 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
FAS
Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
QID
ProShares UltraShort QQQ
Stocks
SDS
ProShares UltraShort S&P500
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
TBT
ProShares Trust UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year Treasury
Stocks