V1a Commander BND | 4 Trade Days / Year | Replace PST w/ TBT, VIXM w/ VIXY, USDU w/ TLT, & UGL w/ GLD
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
A quarterly, risk-on/risk-off playbook. It checks bonds vs cash and the long-Treasury trend to decide the regime, then picks funds by a short-term "hot/cold" score (RSI): leveraged stocks when conditions are good; hedges or bonds/gold when they’re not.
Each quarter it follows two checks.
1) If broad bonds beat cash-like T‑bills over ~60 days: go risk‑on and equally buy 4 leveraged stock funds that look least overheated by a 10‑day "hot/cold" score (RSI).
2) Otherwise: if long Treasuries lag T‑bills over ~20 days (rising rates), put 60% in 3 hedges (inverse Treasuries, bearish stock funds, volatility, staples/energy) by that score, and 40% in long Treasuries. If they lead (falling rates), put 80% in staples, healthcare, short/long Treasuries, and gold; keep 20% cash.
RSI = quick heat check; lower = less hot.
Out-of-sample edge: ~34.9% annualized return vs ~22.3% for the S&P, with ~0.11% alpha and regime-driven leverage to boost upside. Expect higher drawdowns (~53% vs ~19%); ideal for volatility-tolerant, growth-seeking investors.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Mar 4, 2023
Trading Setting
Quarterly
Type
Stocks
Category
Regime-switching,tactical allocation,quarterly rebalance,rsi ranking,leveraged etfs,defensive hedges
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 19 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
FAS
Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
QID
ProShares UltraShort QQQ
Stocks
SDS
ProShares UltraShort S&P500
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
TBT
ProShares Trust UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year Treasury
Stocks