V1a Commander BND | 4 Trade Days / Year | Replace PST w/ TBT, VIXM w/ VIXY, USDU w/ TLT, & UGL w/ GLD
Today’s Change (Jan 19, 2026)
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About
A quarterly, rules-based “risk on/risk off” strategy. It checks bonds vs T‑Bills to judge the market, then buys ETFs that have recently cooled off: aggressive growth funds in good times, or defensive/hedging funds (plus some Treasuries) in bad times.
Rebalances quarterly.
1) Risk test: If total bonds (BND) beat T‑Bills (BIL) over 60 days → risk‑on; else risk‑off.
2) Buys the least “hot” choices (10‑day RSI: low = recently sold off) from a menu.
Risk‑on: aggressive stock ETFs (tech/semis/S&P/financials) and 3x long Treasuries.
Risk‑off: Use TLT vs BIL (20 days). If TLT weaker (rates rising): hedges (inverse stocks/bonds, staples, energy, volatility) plus some Treasuries. If stronger: defensives (staples, healthcare, short Treasuries, 3x long Treasuries, gold).
Out-of-sample edge: 34.75% annualized return vs SPY ~22.3%, with Calmar ~0.66 and a risk-on/risk-off framework that toggles hedges in rate stress. Higher upside, but drawdowns can exceed 50% in stress years.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.49 | 0.69 | 0.07 | 0.27 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 658.23% | 15.24% | 2.19% | 5.01% | 0.93 | |
| 141,852.33% | 66.25% | 1.19% | 3.75% | 1.39 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$14,195,232.86Regulatory Fees
$3,656.76
Total Slippage
$24,923.86
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Mar 4, 2023
Trading Setting
Quarterly
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, quarterly rebalance, risk-on/risk-off, rsi dip-buying, leveraged etfs, bonds vs bills, rate regime, defensives, hedges
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 19 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
FAS
Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x Shares
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
QID
ProShares UltraShort QQQ
Stocks
SDS
ProShares UltraShort S&P500
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares
Stocks
TBT
ProShares Trust UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year Treasury
Stocks