V1.2 | Momentum Mean Reversion LETFs with Black Swan Catcher | DJKeyhole | Use V1.1 A Better LETF Basket
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A signal-driven momentum/mean-reversion system using leveraged ETFs (e.g., TQQQ, TECL, SOXL, SPXL, TMF) plus hedges (UVXY, SQQQ, SPXS, TMF/TMV, UUP, DBC, GLD) to tilt between aggressive and defensive bets. It uses RSI, moving averages, and regime checks against SPY and other proxies, plus a Black Swan catcher to protect during spikes in volatility. No fixed rebalancing; actions fire from nested rules and thresholds.
- Look for market regime signals using multiple windows and indicators on a broad mix of leveraged ETFs and market proxies. These signals cover stock-market momentum themes (e.g., tech/QQQ-like exposure), bond trends, dollar strength, and volatility risk.
- Build two main decision forks: a Long-Term LETF Basket that bets on up moves in high-m conviction themes (e.g., tech, semis, S&P 500) via 2x–3x levered ETFs, and a Defense/Modified Basket that shifts toward safer or hedged bets (treasury levers like TMF/TMV, USD proxies like UUP, commodity/gold, and bear/volatility hedges like UVXY, SQQQ, SPXS).
- Use momentum and mean-reversion ranking (e.g., moving-average returns, cumulative returns, RSI) to select which LETFs to hold. The system often uses “bottom” or “top” filters to pick the assets with the strongest momentum signals, then assigns weights that reflect the rule (typical full capital allocation to chosen assets within a basket).
- Apply a Black Swan catcher: when volatility spikes (indicated by UVXY and related RSI/return rules), tilt more toward hedges (e.g., UVXY-driven exits/defensive allocations) to protect portfolio value.
- Gate entry/exit with price-relations to SPY and with EMA crosses: if the market is trending above/below SPY’s long-term trend, engage corresponding LETF baskets or defensive hedges.
- No fixed quarterly/yearly rebalance; decisions are driven by the live signal path. This makes the system highly responsive but requires real-time data, careful risk management, and attention to the compounding risks of LETFs.
Dynamic, signal-driven strategy shifts between leveraged equity bets and hedges for higher upside with risk controls. OOS annualized return ~44% vs S&P ~23%, plus a Black Swan catcher. Higher potential returns but larger drawdowns in crises.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.62 | 0.83 | 0.04 | 0.21 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 436.6% | 13.93% | -2.02% | -1.16% | 0.85 | |
| 32,308,106,314.38% | 357.73% | -8.62% | 0.44% | 2.56 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$3,230,810,641,438.37Regulatory Fees
$4,842,666,394.53
Total Slippage
$6,145,572,662.44
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 17, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 24%
Type
Stocks
Category
Momentum, mean reversion, leveraged etfs, tactical allocation, risk management, black swan catcher, multi-asset
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 44 assets in total
Ticker
Type
AGG
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF
Stocks
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BRZU
Direxion Daily MSCI Brazil Bull 2X ETF
Stocks
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
CURE
Direxion Daily Healthcare Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
DIG
ProShares Ultra Energy
Stocks
EEM
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF
Stocks
EFA
iShares MSCI EAFE ETF
Stocks
EPI
WisdomTree India Earnings Fund ETF
Stocks