V1.2 ChatGPT Beats SPY
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A daily tactical rotation between a leveraged tech sleeve (TQQQ/SHY) and a low-volatility/bond sleeve (SPLV/AGG), driven by SPY’s 5-day momentum and 50/200-day trend. Teeter-totters between aggressive and conservative tilts based on explicit SPY signals.
What it does: Each day it chooses between two sleeves and assigns weights to the ETFs below, based on SPY momentum and trend.
Two sleeves:
- Aggressive sleeve: TQQQ (3x NASDAQ-100) with a small hedge SHY (short-term Treasuries) to temper volatility.
Conservative sleeve: SPLV (low-volatility SPY) with AGG (core U.S. bonds).
Rules (based on SPY data):
- If SPY 5-day return < -5%: allocate 90% to TQQQ and 10% to SHY.
- Else if SPY 5-day return > 3%: check SPY trend via 50-day vs 200-day moving averages. If 50-day > 200-day, allocate 90% TQQQ / 10% SHY; if 50-day <= 200-day, allocate 60% SPLV / 40% AGG.
- The "else" branch for the 5-day > -5% case repeats the 50/200-day rule: uptrend leads to 90/10 (TQQQ/SHY); downtrend leads to 60/40 (SPLV/AGG).
Rebalance: daily, resetting weights to reflect the chosen sleeve and assets. Assets used: TQQQ, SHY, SPLV, AGG, with SPY serving as the market proxy used in the momentum and trend checks. Risks: levered ETFs like TQQQ can be highly volatile and penalize compounding in long holds; relying on SPY as the sole market proxy can oversimplify multi-asset dynamics; this is a tactical rotation rather than a long-term exposure strategy.
Out-of-sample shows ~39% annualized return vs SPY's 23.7%, via daily rotation between leveraged growth and conservative sleeves. Higher upside but larger drawdowns (~54% vs ~19%). Suited for higher risk tolerance.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.03 | 2.32 | 0.69 | 0.83 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 553.47% | 13.49% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.82 | |
| 3,253.11% | 26.72% | -0.29% | -1.85% | 0.74 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$335,310.57Regulatory Fees
$233.78
Total Slippage
$870.39
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Mar 19, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Dynamic asset allocation, momentum/trend-based, leveraged etfs, risk-on/risk-off, tactical rotation