V1.1 Dereck's Secular Market Framework | STDDev Mod | Garen
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A rules-based playbook that detects long-term bull vs bear markets, then dials risk up or down. It owns stocks in uptrends, mixes in bonds when trends weaken, buys tech dips tactically, and may short tech or hold long bonds in deep bears.
1) Decide the long-term market regime using SPY’s long averages (bull if the 200-day average is above the 1000-day).
2) Within that regime, use medium-term trend (50 vs 200-day), price vs the 200-day, heat (RSI), and market calm (volatility) to shift among: SPY/QQQ, tech and semis, long or short tech, and US Treasuries of different lengths.
3) Use leverage only in calm bull markets.
Out-of-sample edge: ~37.6% annualized return vs ~20.3% for the S&P, Calmar ~1.35. Higher drawdown (~28%) is balanced by regime-based risk controls and durable, compounding gains across cycles.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.24 | 0.76 | 0.3 | 0.54 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 585.54% | 10.6% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 0.61 | |
| 25,907.91% | 33.77% | 0.99% | -5.44% | 1.19 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$2,600,791.43Regulatory Fees
$6,387.84
Total Slippage
$40,577.91
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jul 17, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 3%
Type
Stocks
Category
Regime-based trend following, tactical asset allocation, momentum/rsi, volatility filter, etfs, leverage/inverse capable
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 11 assets in total
Ticker
Type
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
IEI
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
PSQ
ProShares Short QQQ
Stocks
QLD
ProShares Ultra QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SOXX
iShares Semiconductor ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
XLK
State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks