V1.1 Dereck's Secular Market Framework | STDDev Mod | Garen
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
Labels the market as long-term bull or bear, then tilts between stocks, Treasuries, and occasional short Nasdaq. Adds 2× Nasdaq in calm uptrends, adds bonds when stocks look stretched, and goes defensive in downtrends.
1) Read long trend: if the S&P 500’s 200‑day average is above its 1000‑day, treat as a secular bull; else bear.
2) Use 50 vs 200‑day, RSI (how stretched up/down), price vs trend, and 10‑day volatility to pick: SPY, QLD (2× Nasdaq), XLK/SOXX (tech/semis), PSQ (short Nasdaq), Treasuries (SHY/IEI/IEF/TLT) or XLP (defensive).
Out-of-sample, this strategy targets much higher upside (37.6% vs 20.3% SPY) with strong risk-adjusted metrics (Calmar 1.35; Sharpe ~1.17). It rotates between stocks and bonds to ride uptrends and defend declines, unlike SPY.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.24 | 0.76 | 0.3 | 0.55 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 571.19% | 10.45% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.6 | |
| 25,225.99% | 33.52% | 0.12% | -0.61% | 1.19 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$2,532,598.84Regulatory Fees
$6,387.86
Total Slippage
$40,577.91
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jul 17, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 3%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, regime switching, trend following, momentum, volatility filter, equity-bond rotation, defensive hedging, inverse/leveraged etfs
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 11 assets in total
Ticker
Type
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
IEI
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
PSQ
ProShares Short QQQ
Stocks
QLD
ProShares Ultra QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SOXX
iShares Semiconductor ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
XLK
State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks