V1.1 Dereck's Secular Market Framework | STDDev Mod | Garen
Today’s Change (Aug 23, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
Labels the market as long-term bull or bear, then tilts between stocks, Treasuries, and occasional short Nasdaq. Adds 2× Nasdaq in calm uptrends, adds bonds when stocks look stretched, and goes defensive in downtrends.
1) Read long trend: if the S&P 500’s 200‑day average is above its 1000‑day, treat as a secular bull; else bear.
2) Use 50 vs 200‑day, RSI (how stretched up/down), price vs trend, and 10‑day volatility to pick: SPY, QLD (2× Nasdaq), XLK/SOXX (tech/semis), PSQ (short Nasdaq), Treasuries (SHY/IEI/IEF/TLT) or XLP (defensive).
This regime-switching strategy aims for outsized upside (37.3% annualized vs 20.1% SPY) with strong risk controls (Calmar ~1.33). By tilting to bonds and hedges in drawdowns, it targets higher risk-adjusted returns than the S&P 500.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.24 | 0.78 | 0.3 | 0.55 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 670.26% | 10.99% | 2.33% | 3.36% | 0.63 | |
| 33,328.19% | 34.56% | 0.34% | 0.28% | 1.2 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$3,342,818.56Regulatory Fees
$5,617.86
Total Slippage
$46,488.88
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jul 17, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 3%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, regime switching, trend following, momentum, volatility filter, equity-bond rotation, defensive hedging, inverse/leveraged etfs
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 11 assets in total
Ticker
Type
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
IEI
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
PSQ
ProShares Short QQQ
Stocks
QLD
ProShares Ultra QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SOXX
iShares Semiconductor ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
XLK
State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks