V1.1 Dereck's Secular Market Framework | STDDev Mod | Garen
Today’s Change (Oct 22, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A market-timing strategy that takes more stock and tech risk in strong market eras, but shifts into bonds, defensive stocks, or even bearish positions when long-term trends weaken.
This strategy first decides whether the U.S. stock market is in a long strong period or a long weak period by comparing long-term trends in the S&P 500.
In strong periods, it mainly owns U.S. stocks and sometimes leans harder into tech. In weak periods, it shifts toward Treasury bonds and defensive stocks, and can even bet against tech. It also checks whether the market looks overheated, oversold, or unusually volatile before choosing how aggressive to be.
Out-of-sample, this regime-aware strategy delivers higher upside (35% annualized vs SPY's 19%), with solid risk-adjusted returns (Calmar ~1.26). It tilts to bonds/defensives in weak regimes for stronger, longer-term growth than the S&P 500.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.24 | 0.78 | 0.3 | 0.55 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 679.56% | 10.96% | -0.05% | 3.57% | 0.63 | |
| 34,020.03% | 34.36% | -4.97% | 2.53% | 1.2 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$3,412,003.06Regulatory Fees
$5,752.08
Total Slippage
$46,438.71
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jul 17, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 3%
Type
Stocks
Category
Market regime, trend following, tactical allocation, momentum, mean reversion, defensive rotation, leveraged/inverse etfs
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 11 assets in total
Ticker
Type
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
IEI
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
PSQ
ProShares Short QQQ
Stocks
QLD
ProShares Ultra QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SOXX
iShares Semiconductor ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
XLK
State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks