V1.1 | Commander BND Quarterly | 4 Trade Days / Year
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
A quarterly, macro‑aware rotation. If bonds beat T‑bills, buy 4 leveraged growth funds that look least “hot” by 10‑day RSI. If not, switch to rate‑aware defenses (USD/defensives/inverse when yields rise; Treasuries/gold when they fall). Includes a 30% rate‑trend overlay.
Every quarter it checks if broad US bonds (BND) have been beating T‑bills (BIL). If yes, it goes “risk‑on”: it splits money across 4 leveraged growth funds (tech/semis/Nasdaq/S&P/financials or long Treasuries) that look least “hot” by a 10‑day RSI (a short‑term heat meter; lower = more oversold). If no, it goes “risk‑off” and then asks: are interest rates rising or falling? Rising: mix inverse/defensive funds plus a 40% US‑dollar stake. Falling: favor long Treasuries, gold, staples/health, and keep some cash. A separate 30% sleeve follows the rate trend alone with similar mixes.
Out-of-sample annualized return ~30% vs SPY ~22.6%, driven by macro-rate rotation and selective levered growth with rate-aware hedges. Higher upside, but larger drawdowns vs SPY.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
May 29, 2023
Trading Setting
Quarterly
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, risk-on/risk-off, leveraged etfs, rsi mean-reversion, macro rates trend, quarterly rebalance
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 27 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
FAS
Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x Shares
Stocks
PST
ProShares Trust UltraShort Lehman 7-10 Year Treasury
Stocks
QID
ProShares UltraShort QQQ
Stocks
QLD
ProShares Ultra QQQ
Stocks
SDS
ProShares UltraShort S&P500
Stocks
SHV
iShares Trust iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks