V1.1 | Bear BUYDIPS, Bull HFEAR | Michael B | Safety Mix Update
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
Switches playbooks by market stress: in bears, buy 5‑day air‑pocket dips with TQQQ/UPRO or sit in a USD/gold/staples safety mix; in bulls, run a levered 55/45 stocks‑bonds barbell unless short‑term stress appears.
Step 1: Is the S&P 500’s worst 1‑year drop >10%?
- Yes (bear): Buy sharp 5‑day dips. If QQQ fell >5%, buy TQQQ (3× Nasdaq) unless it already jumped >5% today; else if SPY fell >5%, buy UPRO (3× S&P) unless it jumped; otherwise hold UUP (US dollar), GLD (gold), XLP (consumer‑staples).
- No (bull): When calm, hold ~55% UPRO/TQQQ (sized by recent volatility) + 45% TMF (3× long Treasuries); if not calm, use the same safety trio.
Regime-switching strategy with dip-buying and a safety sleeve aims for disciplined risk management. Out-of-sample: 15.17% annualized vs SPY 21.96%; Sharpe 0.58 vs 1.38; Calmar 0.44; max drawdown 34.68% vs 18.76%.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.21 | 0.96 | 0.32 | 0.57 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 674.23% | 13.66% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.83 | |
| 13,767.52% | 36.16% | 0.44% | 13.86% | 1.2 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$1,386,752.18Regulatory Fees
$1,896.17
Total Slippage
$10,201.39
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jan 12, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 5%
Type
Stocks
Category
Regime-switching, leveraged etfs, dip-buying, defensive sleeve, inverse-vol weighting, trend/risk filter
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 8 assets in total
Ticker
Type
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UPRO
ProShares UltraPro S&P 500
Stocks
UUP
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
Stocks
XLP
State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks