A regime-switching strategy: if SPY’s 1-year max drawdown > 10%, it buys dips in Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 with leveraged ETFs (TQQQ and UPRO) plus a Safety Mix (UUP/GLD/XLP). If not, it runs a higher-growth bull strategy using leveraged equity proxies with a Risk ON/OFF hedge (and TMF as a long-bond tilt), plus safety overlays when needed. No fixed rebalancing; exposure shifts on signals with a 5% corridor. Backtested from 2010 through 4/5/2010 (data date in description).

- Determine market regime: look at SPY’s 1-year max drawdown. If SPY’s drawdown > 10%, it’s bear mode; else bull mode. - Bear mode (dip-buy Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500): buy dips using leveraged ETFs to magnify rebounds (Nasdaq via TQQQ, S&P 500 via UPRO). Signals are tied to short-window dip checks (e.g., recent price drops in Nasdaq-100 or S&P 500 signal a dip with potential for a rebound). Allocate tactically with cash-equal weighting across the chosen dip-buy assets. Run a Safety Mix (UUP, GLD, XLP) as hedges when signals indicate risk-off conditions. The safety mix is used under certain outcomes (e.g., if short-term gains in UPRO/UPRO-like signals are not favorable, or if a dip check aligns with a risk-off cue). - Bull mode (growth-oriented with hedging): switch to a higher-growth version of a growth strategy. Core exposure uses leveraged equity proxies (TQQQ and UPRO) with a 55/45 weight split, plus TMF (Treasury 3x) as a hedging/diversification piece. The system also includes a Risk ON vs Risk OFF split: in Risk ON it chooses growth assets; in Risk OFF it shifts toward the Safety Mix (UUP/GLD/XLP). A moving-average/check against a longer-term price trend helps decide Risk ON vs Risk OFF, and the system uses a 200-day moving-average-like check to decide whether to stay in growth or retreat to safety. There is no strict periodic rebalance; turnover is governed by signals with a loose 5% corridor to reduce excessive trading. - Defensive layer and risk controls: the Safety Mix (UUP, GLD, XLP) appears as a fallback or safety sleeve in both bear and certain bull scenarios, providing diversification and potential ballast during stress. The approach emphasizes using cash-equal sizing within each signal group and limiting rebalances, which can help reduce trading noise. Overall strategy aims to capture upside during favorable regimes while limiting downside with defensive overlays, but it relies on regime timing and levered ETFs, which carry meaningful risk and complexity.

Adaptive regime-switching strategy that pivots between bear-dip buying and bull growth, with Safety Mix hedges and cash-equal sizing. Out-of-sample: 15.2% annualized return, 0.58 Sharpe, Calmar 0.44—diversified risk vs SPY.