V1.1 | Bear BUYDIPS, Bull HFEAR | Michael B | Safety Mix Update
Today’s Change (Feb 22, 2026)
—
A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
Switches playbooks: in rough markets it buys sharp dips with 3x stock ETFs or sits in a safety basket; in calm bull markets it runs a higher‑growth mix of UPRO/TQQQ + TMF, otherwise returns to the same safety basket.
Step 1: Is the S&P 500’s worst drop in the last year over 10%? If yes, it’s “bear.” If no, it’s “bull.”
Bear: Split in two. For Nasdaq and S&P slices, buy 3x ETFs after a ~5% weekly drop (TQQQ=Nasdaq‑100, UPRO=S&P 500), unless today already jumped >5%; otherwise use a safety basket (UUP=US dollar, GLD=gold, XLP=consumer‑staples).
Bull: If calm/trending, go risk‑on: ~55% UPRO/TQQQ (balanced by volatility) + ~45% TMF (3x long Treasuries). If not calm, use the safety basket. Weights refresh about monthly.
Dynamic regime-switching strategy that buys dips in bear markets and shifts to growth in calm bulls, with a safety sleeve for risk control. Out-of-sample: ~15.2% annualized return and solid risk-adjusted metrics vs SPY.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.21 | 0.96 | 0.32 | 0.57 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 695.74% | 13.92% | 1.75% | 5.97% | 0.84 | |
| 13,929.32% | 36.44% | 9.74% | 18.41% | 1.21 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$1,402,932.12Regulatory Fees
$1,896.17
Total Slippage
$10,201.39
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jan 12, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 5%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, regime switching, leveraged etfs, dip buying, risk-on/risk-off, trend and safety
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 8 assets in total
Ticker
Type
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (based on the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index; symbol AXTWEN)
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UPRO
ProShares UltraPro S&P 500
Stocks
UUP
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
Stocks
XLP
State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks