v1.03 - Non-Inverted Yields Bear Market (RSI)
Today’s Change (Apr 20, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
Daily, rules‑based bear‑market swing system: hide in T‑bills on volatility spikes; when the trend is weak, use quick oversold/turn signals to hop into 3× bull or 3× bear ETFs, or short‑term bonds. Bull regime is a cash placeholder.
Daily rules. 1) If a volatility gauge (UVXY) shows a hot short‑term heat score (RSI) > 70, park in T‑bills (BIL). 2) Else, if the S&P 500 (SPY) is above its 200‑day trend line (moving average), this version stays in T‑bills. 3) Else (weak market), quick heat/turn checks (RSI and 20‑day average) on the Nasdaq (QQQ, PSQ) and SPY switch between: 3× bull funds (TQQQ/UPRO), 3× bear (SQQQ), or short‑term bonds (BSV). 3× funds are very high risk.
Out-of-sample edge: about 20.41% annualized return with max drawdown ~7.6% vs SPY ~18.8%, Sharpe ~1.52, Calmar ~2.70. Similar upside, but far lower risk and better risk-adjusted profile—cash/bond hedges.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.24 | 0.19 | 0.01 | 0.12 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 648.54% | 14.93% | 6.16% | 5.09% | 0.91 | |
| 2,744.82% | 26.05% | 0.55% | 1.1% | 1 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$284,482.46Regulatory Fees
$603.81
Total Slippage
$3,643.70
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Feb 2, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, rsi momentum, trend filter, volatility hedge, leveraged etfs, bonds/cash, daily rebalance
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 9 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
PSQ
ProShares Short QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SQQQ
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UPRO
ProShares UltraPro S&P 500
Stocks
UVXY
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks