V1 | Safer 20 Year Treasury Bonds | Michael B
Today’s Change (Oct 12, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
Times 3× Treasury funds (TMF/TMV) using TLT’s long‑ and short‑term trends plus an RSI “hot/cold” meter. When signals are weak, it rotates into safer assets (USD, gold, defensive stocks, short Treasuries) to reduce big drawdowns.
Uses TLT (20+ yr US Treasury bonds) as the guide. If TLT is above its 200‑day average (uptrend), it buys TMF (3× bull Treasuries) when short‑term trend is up or very washed‑out (RSI, a 0–100 heat gauge). If TLT is extremely hot (RSI>80), it buys TMV (3× bear). Otherwise it holds a safety mix: UUP (US dollar), GLD (gold), XLP (defensive stocks), SHY (1–3yr Treasuries). If TLT is below its 200‑day average, it holds the two least‑volatile of UUP/GLD/XLP/SHY.
Out-of-sample: Sharpe -0.21; annualized return -1.85%; max drawdown ~18.35%. Not beating the S&P on stats, but this strategy uses defensive rotations to protect capital and diversify with Treasuries, complementing stock exposure.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0.11 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1,128.42% | 15.45% | 2.37% | 3.83% | 0.93 | |
| 183.66% | 6.15% | 1.73% | 1.18% | 0.61 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$28,365.64Regulatory Fees
$174.91
Total Slippage
$1,378.81
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 25, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 5%
Type
Stocks
Category
Treasuries, leveraged etfs, trend following, momentum, defensive rotation, risk management
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 7 assets in total
Ticker
Type
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
TMV
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X ETF
Stocks
UUP
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
Stocks
XLP
State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks