V1 | Normal or High Inflation? | Framework | DereckNielsen
Today’s Change (Jul 26, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A tactical, inflation‑aware plan. It classifies stock and inflation regimes, then in bear markets trades between 2x long/short Nasdaq or short‑term bonds; in bull markets it sits in short‑term Treasuries, adding a short‑Treasury hedge when inflation runs hot.
First it labels regimes:
- Stocks: SPY vs its 200‑day average → bull/bear.
- Inflation: TLT vs its 400‑day average → normal/high.
Bear: flip among QLD (2x up Nasdaq), QID (2x down Nasdaq), SSO (2x up S&P), and BSV/SHY (short‑term Treasuries) using QLD’s 20‑day trend and RSI (an overbought/oversold gauge; <~30 = very beaten‑down). Pair with bonds: add TBX (short Treasuries) if inflation’s high; use TLT when normal.
Bull: hold SHY; if inflation’s high, split SHY/TBX.
Inflation-aware, regime-switching strategy that hedges with bonds in bear/high-inflation markets and uses equity leverage only in favorable regimes. Out-of-sample: lower drawdown (17.8% vs 18.8%), modest 7.7%/yr return, and low ~0.33 beta—strong diversification vs the S&P 500.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.2 | -0 | 0 | -0 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 625.72% | 13.86% | 0.78% | 3.77% | 0.84 | |
| 1,386.04% | 19.33% | 0.51% | -0.76% | 0.98 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$148,604.48Regulatory Fees
$328.68
Total Slippage
$2,390.47
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jul 23, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Multi-asset, regime switching, trend/mean-reversion, inflation-aware, leveraged etfs, tactical
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 9 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
QID
ProShares UltraShort QQQ
Stocks
QLD
ProShares Ultra QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SSO
ProShares Ultra S&P500
Stocks
TBX
ProShares Short 7-10 Year Treasury
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks