V1 | Beta Baller Backed with Treasuries | 215% AR | 39% DD 2012-22
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
Fades stock‑market extremes using VIX ETFs and 3x semis/tech, while defaulting to leveraged Treasury ETFs (long or short) based on the bond trend (TLH). Uses RSI, a 0–100 “heat” gauge, to time entries. Very aggressive; expects big swings.
1) Bond regime: if 10–20yr Treasuries (TLH) are up over ~1yr, default to 3x long‑Treasury; if down, 3x short‑Treasury.
2) A short‑term bond vs 7–10yr Treasury check (BSV/BIL vs IEF) decides if we instead trade stocks/vol:
• If S&P 500 (SPY) is hot (RSI high), buy VIX ETFs.
• Else flip between 3x semis long/short.
• If SPY is very cold (RSI low), use SHY vs SPHB to pick long tech/semis or short.
RSI: 0–100 “heat” gauge; high=overbought, low=oversold.
Out-of-sample, this strategy targets ~48% annualized returns vs SPY’s ~21%, with alpha and a Calmar ~0.67. It thrives on regime shifts and volatility spikes, offering bigger upside—albeit with larger drawdowns in stress.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Nov 15, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 5%
Type
Stocks
Category
Regime-switching, rsi timing, leveraged etfs, treasuries, volatility, semiconductors, tech, tactical, mean reversion
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 17 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
SOXS
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X ETF
Stocks
SPHB
Invesco S&P 500 High Beta ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SQQQ
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x ETF
Stocks