V1 | Bear BUYDIPS, Bull HFEAR | Michael B | No K-1 | BIL
Today’s Change (Apr 19, 2026)
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About
Two-speed plan: in rough markets, buy sharp 5‑day dips with leveraged stock ETFs or sit in cash. In calm bull markets, hold ~55% leveraged stocks and 45% leveraged Treasuries; flip to cash when short‑term stress appears. Daily checks, 1099/no K‑1.
Daily it chooses between cash (BIL), leveraged stocks, and leveraged Treasuries based on market stress.
If SPY has been down >10% from a high in the past year: only buy big 5‑day dips (>5%) in QQQ/SPY via TQQQ/UPRO; otherwise stay in BIL and avoid buying on >5% rebound days.
Else (calmer): if the past 10 days show <5% drop, hold ~55% UPRO/TQQQ (sized by recent volatility) and 45% TMF; otherwise BIL.
Tickers: BIL=T‑Bills; SPY=S&P 500; QQQ=Nasdaq‑100; UPRO=3x SPY; TQQQ=3x QQQ; TMF=3x long Treasuries.
Out-of-sample, this regime-switching sleeve offers disciplined risk control and diversification from the S&P 500. It shifts to cash or leveraged bonds in stress, aiming to cushion drawdowns and provide a risk-aware path for capital preservation.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.21 | 0.86 | 0.26 | 0.51 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 721.83% | 14.01% | 6.16% | 5.09% | 0.85 | |
| 10,606.42% | 33.76% | 26.85% | 35.33% | 1.15 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$1,070,642.46Regulatory Fees
$1,563.10
Total Slippage
$8,337.84
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Feb 2, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Regime-switching, buy-the-dip, leveraged etfs, risk-parity, tactical allocation, us equities, treasuries, volatility targeting, cash filter, daily rebalance
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 6 assets in total