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V1 | Bear BUYDIPS, Bull HFEAR | Michael B | No K-1 | BIL
Today’s Change

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About

Two-speed plan: in rough markets, buy sharp 5‑day dips with leveraged stock ETFs or sit in cash. In calm bull markets, hold ~55% leveraged stocks and 45% leveraged Treasuries; flip to cash when short‑term stress appears. Daily checks, 1099/no K‑1.
NutHow it works
Daily it chooses between cash (BIL), leveraged stocks, and leveraged Treasuries based on market stress. If SPY has been down >10% from a high in the past year: only buy big 5‑day dips (>5%) in QQQ/SPY via TQQQ/UPRO; otherwise stay in BIL and avoid buying on >5% rebound days. Else (calmer): if the past 10 days show <5% drop, hold ~55% UPRO/TQQQ (sized by recent volatility) and 45% TMF; otherwise BIL. Tickers: BIL=T‑Bills; SPY=S&P 500; QQQ=Nasdaq‑100; UPRO=3x SPY; TQQQ=3x QQQ; TMF=3x long Treasuries.
CheckmarkValue prop
Out-of-sample annualized return ~3.96% vs SPY ~21.49%, yet this rules-based sleeve emphasizes risk control (bear-dip triggers, cash shield) and daily transparency, offering a meaningful diversification complement to SPY rather than a direct replacement.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
Alpha
Beta
R2
R
0.2
0.86
0.26
0.51
Performance Metrics
Cumulative Return
Annualized Return
Trailing 1M Return
Trailing 3M Return
Sharpe Ratio
666.02%
13.89%
0.19%
3.76%
0.84
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$789,481.80
Regulatory Fees
$1,284.54
Total Slippage
$7,489.65
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Feb 2, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Regime-switching, buy-the-dip, leveraged etfs, risk-parity, tactical allocation, us equities, treasuries, volatility targeting, cash filter, daily rebalance
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 0 assets in total
Ticker
Type